In the complex marketplace of relationships, the rules are simple: women are the gatekeepers of sex, and men are the gatekeepers of commitment. This transactional dynamic boils down to an exchange of value—commitment for sex. But how does this value change over time?
A man's Sexual Market Value (SMV) peaks between ages 35-40, when he’s most capable of providing what women seek: security. Conversely, a woman's SMV peaks between 25-30, when she’s most capable of offering what men desire: fertility. It’s straightforward math. By 30, a man's SMV surpasses a woman's for the first time. Both values decline at roughly the same pace post-peak, but men maintain an edge, with their SMV remaining about ten years above women’s. So, a 52-year-old man matches the SMV of a 42-year-old woman. This gap narrows as they age, but the principle holds.
However, reality isn't quite as linear. Two additional factors complicate things: women's professional success and their hypergamous nature. Many women delay settling down to focus on their careers, missing their high fertility phase in their twenties. Moreover, women often date across and up the socio-economic ladder, avoiding men who are less financially viable.
Returning to the basics, men are the gatekeepers of commitment. They make offers of commitment in exchange for sex, and women choose to accept or reject these offers. There are five potential endgames for women in this scenario:
Endgame 1: The woman keeps her price high, beats the competition, and secures a high-value man.
Endgame 2: The woman lowers her price, beats the competition, and secures a high-value man.
Endgame 3: The woman keeps her price high, loses the competition, and settles for a lower-value man.
Endgame 4: The woman lowers her price, loses the competition, and settles for a lower-value man.
Endgame 5: The woman lowers her price, fails to find a partner, and ends up alone.
Which endgame is most likely for women? Let's eliminate the least probable outcomes. Endgame 1 is highly unlikely. Why would a man commit to a woman in Endgame 1 when he can secure the same woman in Endgame 2 at a lower "price"? Let’s assign a 1% probability to Endgame 1. That leaves 9% of apex men, but not all are ready to settle down. Assuming one-third are, Endgame 2 has a 3% probability. This leaves a 96% probability for Endgames 3, 4, and 5.
Endgame 3 is also unlikely because it competes with Endgame 4. Who would pay a high price for something on sale in Endgame 4? Let’s assign a 15% probability to Endgame 3. Studies show that one in four women won't find a mate, so Endgame 5 gets a 25% probability. Tallying these up gives a 44% total, leaving Endgame 4 with a 56% probability. A rather bleak picture for women.
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